0:21
so thanks for coming back for staying till sunday
0:24
uh... innovative techniques with traditional papal indicated ok now i
0:29
will be admitting that this title sounds grand
0:33
it's have missus early innovative because i didn't anticipate
0:38
abhi bhi other resources as we go through
0:41
uh... you know resources that i found
0:45
techniques that i use
0:46
this couple good books out there ok r_s_i_ a lot of people think it's just
0:50
an overbought oversold indicator how do worse we use it actually
0:56
better in-depth indicator office offers lots of
1:00
you can tell through border market
1:02
offers indicate individual trade signals
1:05
and we'll get to that
1:07
okay first of course the wrist disclaimer
1:10
trading efax on margin carries a high level risk
1:13
not suitable for everyone of course
1:15
idea letters from work against his will for you
1:18
uh... for senate race where he stands carefully consider your best majet
1:21
objectives level experience risk appetite
1:24
on the trip money you can live
1:25
was just like if you're going to blackjack tables or anything else
1:32
do you feel like this when you trade
1:34
if you're a felt like this i'm sure people have rays of hands please
1:42
i know i have plenty of time
1:46
though what you need is just really descriptions of the current market
1:52
in order to understand what may happen next
1:55
i guess one two things
1:57
description of direction and i use our side for that
2:01
and a description of all tilley
2:03
pays eighty or for that
2:04
a lot of people want you noted did some professional bloomberg machine they can
2:08
get all the ball figures
2:09
depart applied chart volatility
2:12
uh... you know expectations
2:14
you know that our derive from options prices ok and a_t_r_ they pretty much
2:18
move the exact same you noted above the fancy indicators
2:22
just like the panel last night we talked a bra booker stevenson
2:25
most important thing is trading is obscene knowing yourself and having the
2:28
courage or convictions and
2:30
and having to adjust and all that
2:32
you don't need the tools of course
2:34
hopefully today is a presentation will offer you some insights into the tools
2:38
just a little bit of a background our side
2:41
develop live animals wilder ok nineteen seventy-eight balked at he introduced
2:48
the directional indicator de em i in our side
2:51
is called new concepts and technical trading systems
2:54
so if you want to take that out you don't read the fine copied library or
3:00
the are fine decatur basically indexes price
3:03
okay assigns a value between zero one hundred
3:05
now in reality you're never gonna get as you were one hundred reading because
3:09
unit here always has some sort of past history to it we're going to have an up
3:14
but the idea would be if you had fourteen consecutive updates uh... you
3:18
would have a reading of a hundred as you have no
3:20
you have no average lost in the fourteen days okay
3:23
your basic impairing the average gains against the average losses
3:27
and it's based on the closing price ok has nothing to do with the high lows
3:31
is just the closing price today mice closing price tomorrow
3:36
city average gain over the last fourteen eight sixty peps evers losses
3:41
okay this is the calculation
3:43
euro rescue ralph strength would be to because you have twice as many games as
3:48
the calculation we go as follows right plugging into that numbers there to the
3:54
to one hundred and you would have a r five sixty seven
3:59
you very useful okay from a tree perspective but i just think it's
4:02
important to understand
4:04
calculation is so you know what you're looking at
4:07
you're looking at adverts gains against evers losses effect
4:12
conte browne may have heard of ur she wrote a book all technical houses for
4:15
the trade professional i had to read it for my ciency designation
4:19
uh... it really is useful
4:21
it really is about how to trade
4:23
with our side not the analysis that okay
4:26
how to drive signals from in a lot of presentations gonna take
4:29
uh... her working expand on it
4:32
she likes to call the our side
4:35
uh... people that just sell seventies and by thirties
4:39
it's the our site default club
4:42
this is people aren't you see people like charts all the time record daily
4:47
in their same we what do you think of the setup in their of their chart has
4:50
like five thousand indicators on it
4:52
okay so i can't pull these people the hot indicate reporters
4:56
just like to show the borders
4:58
these people horde indicators
5:01
tender charge look like this
5:03
you can't drive any information from it
5:06
this is uh... an indicator border
5:08
okay we have like five moving averages in bonds are bands
5:12
and are really big redline uh... we have a rate of change with maggie
5:17
we have seized the odd we have our side
5:19
and they all moved the exact same you can see they go up and down together
5:22
because they're drive from the same thing which is the price the underlying
5:26
you don't need all this
5:29
uh... eye-to-eye picked our side ok i got to know our side very well and i'd
5:34
it would get along well
5:39
uh... famed investor right balked at the map twenty nine crash uh... herb not
5:43
twenty pressed by the thirties and installed before the internet
5:46
a burst of two thousand
5:48
that you would have better performance in the crowd to do things differently
5:50
from the ground while the crowd
5:53
is the seventy thirty default on
5:56
the seven thirty four club walls this cell
5:59
when our size box seventy and by with below thirty
6:02
use it doesn't does work out very well might for a little bit
6:05
like it would work for the last four months in the in the euro dollar okay
6:09
but then if you were still doing it on friday i would bet wiped out
6:12
so we don't want to do
6:14
part of a default we don't be part of a default club
6:16
the clothes not pay to be in
6:20
this is a just example
6:22
of when our site is about seventy
6:26
rates below thirty four
6:27
so this would be if you were buying on the default club
6:30
from kabc it doesn't work out very well
6:33
yet you have a couple really good signals be pretty wiped out by the time
6:36
you got to that point
6:39
the whole point of this is the illustrate that our site
6:42
is continuously overbought
6:44
during up friends and finds lows before it gets oversold
6:47
in that it's continuously oversold burned down friends and it finds pops
6:51
before kits overbought
6:54
uh... in in the current environment are sites in the daily you're a dollar
6:57
reached over sold for the first time a long time on friday
7:00
okay that's measles confirmation that were not a larger downtrend rather than
7:04
you know uh... per below that should be bought
7:10
you know this is not an exact science i like to see the trainings likened art
7:14
okay their science behind it
7:15
but you have to know how to interpret it
7:19
so an initial overbought condition indicate a new uptrend right above
7:24
uh... you don't want to just buy blindly if you're about seventy all that may
7:29
but you're looking for than the pool back in our side looking for support it
7:33
basically every ten points below
7:35
so look for support sixty fifty four t
7:39
uh... but you shouldn't get the thirty
7:42
nishal oversold condition indicates new down front
7:45
the ural right now on the daily
7:47
resistance is a forty fifty and sixty
7:51
it's important in uses i think when david charts not necessarily on weekly
7:57
because currencies kinda mean reversion tendency right
8:01
the euro for examples but at one thirty
8:03
plus or minus two thousand that last order
8:06
uh... so if you're waiting for ur you know weekly confirmation of the
8:09
downtrodden oversold signal on a weekly chart a monthly check
8:12
probably be you know to backing of a signal
8:19
so here's a knit here's an idea though uh... for starters example
8:22
this is the euro dollar weekly chart you can see during the entire uptrend by the
8:26
way the indicators www and it's about seventy
8:28
just for visual purposes and below thirty it's red
8:32
you can see there in the entire uptrend ault two thousand
8:35
quote you know the two thousand eight
8:37
are saying never crosses below thirty not once
8:40
alright that's what our site looks like an upturn
8:43
even during the decline during two thousand five from one thirty
8:47
uh... you know all the lead on the one eighteen we need to get oversold
8:51
we got our first oversold level
8:53
after in two thousand eight right
8:55
and then you can see since then our size pretty much failed up near sixty
9:03
zooming in a little bit
9:05
our size support looking for support when our size at about fifty
9:09
the midpoint of our side tends to provide pretty solid support
9:17
this is the dollar yen weekly chart
9:20
the entire decline from the two thousand seven top
9:23
are saying never once reaches seventy
9:27
uh... we thought we had huge rallies along the way
9:29
but not once as are five reach the overbought figure
9:32
therefore is not once confirm that we renew upfront
9:36
okay continually bounces along its lows
9:38
an incorrect and then stops near fifty or sixty
9:41
use of the our site rains rules
9:43
right to bear market
9:45
there are size gonna fluctuate between twenty in sixty
9:49
and a bull markets don't fluctuate between eighty and forty
9:54
you can use this level to identify
9:56
support objectively support because
9:59
you know this is a serb just a figure
10:03
speaking is sixteen forty
10:06
what it looks like when our size about sixty
10:10
its blue and below forty thread
10:14
trend definition this is the euro dollar weiler
10:20
okay so everyone is probably familiar with diversions
10:24
uh... but i think it's miss misused quite often
10:29
for one failing moment some our side ever since it's a warning of the trend
10:34
change it's not the signal that you're going to reverse
10:37
because you're one looking for reversal which is nearly impossible of trade
10:40
especially with just an indicator
10:43
and ibd ignore any diversions that
10:48
at an overbought signal in other words that you had our site eighty at the
10:51
previous pecan our size at seventy
10:55
i'd north because we're still overbought which means we're still confirming
10:58
uptrend as per our siren drills okay
11:01
uh... what you want to see if you want to see that higher low
11:04
uh... the new hire loaded with the company our side be below the overbought
11:08
or above the oversold figure so i see the proximity to fifty
11:13
is directly correlated to the strength of the signal
11:16
so a lower pecan no mud floor are so i said
11:20
sixty five or six seats not overbought timmy a stronger signal
11:24
when you're going for our side doing your our site alesis
11:27
uh... look at closing prices not
11:30
bars or candles okay the reason is is that you're looking
11:33
uh... for divergence is and and uh... positive negative reversals which will
11:37
get you in a moment
11:39
our size based on closing prices it doesn't know what the heart of a low the
11:44
the higher the loads by carlo
11:46
because you'll get distorted view maybe you had a new high
11:50
on a spike but not a new high
11:52
on the closing price therefore you didn't have divergence because he didn't
11:58
okay so just need sample visual example just you know so those of you did arent
12:01
sure whatever since is
12:04
it's just a slight new high dislike me lo
12:06
okay and you can see here that examples i chose were not huh
12:13
okay or below thirty at the signals therefore they were
12:16
you know more reliable than other other ones would be
12:21
now the jury's still out
12:23
okay on the euro dollar missus again the daily chart you can see that the topic
12:27
one forty nine fifty
12:30
divergent okay i have a circle
12:33
okay so that was warning that may be uh... we're not
12:36
you know putting any
12:39
okay but considering that we've broken down through the bottom of the range
12:44
you know perhaps we have nothing is exact you know had any you know idea
12:47
what is that this can happen next
12:52
okay here's not examples of diversions occurred at or not to be
12:58
you can see during that party doesn't decline q
13:01
usually line drive from one sixty
13:02
for one nearly one twenty
13:06
we have divergence right we have higher our site new world
13:09
our size below thirty
13:13
again were below thirty were still confirming downtrend status
13:16
okay but then we you know consult a little bit during the next level our
13:20
site is well above thirty
13:23
that's what you want to say
13:27
you know you see diversions
13:29
but you're below thirty above seventy
13:35
we'll keep you have a lot of bad
13:42
to positive and negative reversals of these are very useful
13:46
uh... this actually gives you the signals to go a long and short
13:51
think the opposite divergent so when ever since we have price making a new
13:55
high our site not make a new high
13:59
these positive negative reversals are side makes
14:02
you know a lower low price does not
14:11
you can see the lower low
14:14
it's not accompanied by
14:17
so think of the dynamics of you know what this means they usually means that
14:22
on the indicators primarily time date
14:27
which is indicative of a correction
14:34
similar uh... thing here
14:36
getting higher our size
14:38
right think of the rains rules radar says failing at the fifty sixty area and
14:42
then you see that all our physically higher than it was the previous spot
14:47
but prices move that much
14:49
they were still in downtown so what does what that's telling you
14:53
and what's great about this it is that it gives you clear uh...
14:57
obviously clear directional signals but also
15:01
gives you stop locals
15:02
and summer park too
15:07
you know i first want floor p if i wouldn't take that signal of one thirty
15:11
acres your stuff mc one point six
15:13
some might assist way too big of a risk for me
15:16
uh... but you know this is on showing this on daily weekly chart because the
15:19
just uh... give you an idea of
15:21
what this looks like that you can use this obviously any time frame
15:25
are used on militarily chart for example or three in a minute for
15:30
but one thing is to not be do be careful with intraday
15:34
for in any awfully or
15:35
that's for any time series
15:38
because there's a natural skew
15:41
volatility on an entry chart what i mean is that
15:44
everyday both who is gonna be hired two european open of u_s_ open that it is
15:49
you know new york at two o'clock to five o'clock
15:52
which distorts the indicator okay
15:55
so to make an indicator
16:02
uh... weaken program to send to
16:05
strategy traitor ok actually have a program in stratford or so it will have
16:09
to look for the signals they just pop up
16:12
okay our site because the lowest our site next month periods their taxes you
16:17
look back period so
16:18
if i'm looking at a weekly chart of say
16:21
thirteen weeks they might
16:23
parameters always the same
16:26
always thirteen weeks
16:28
so is twenty four three hundred minute bars
16:31
which would be a week
16:32
if it was twenty four sixty minute bars which is a day
16:36
if i go to attend a chart x forty eight which is four hundred eighty minutes
16:39
which is one session
16:40
an eight hour period right
16:44
you know you ought to be consistent
16:47
so choose periods and don't mess around with them
16:52
okay and then rooting for our side rear than forty because they often go below
16:56
we might be failing
16:58
and what the underlying trend was going to be reversing
17:00
and then you want the clothes obviously to be higher than the previous close
17:06
over the last six month period
17:09
okay so i always use fourteen for our side and some people you know
17:15
uh... see people use thirteen
17:19
again welles wilder the guy that wrote the book invented our sahi back test a
17:25
came up a fourteen so
17:27
wife one s for the good thing
17:29
my look back again i just went over but
17:32
know why i think what questions why use three hundred minute charts
17:35
why why keep my when im going from time to time for you know we keep it
17:39
so what the factor to be the same
17:41
so basically from sixty to three hundred as a factor of five
17:45
from three hundred and daily is roughly a factor of five
17:48
fifteen hundred minutes
17:49
fourteen forty would be a day
17:51
you go from daily weekly the factor of five
17:55
so i don't like you know mahal i wanna go each degree up
17:58
and keep it consistent that way
18:01
in just a tet as well
18:03
if you're looking to identify trend on a daily chart and trade from a lower
18:08
you gotta go to steps down in order to get your signal because if you have an
18:12
opportunity daily you're not going to get an over sold condition on a
18:15
predetermined charts is not gonna happen
18:17
so you need to go to a sixty minutes
18:20
if you're looking at a weekly trend and that's how you identifier trend you have
18:23
to train from the three hundred-man charter lower
18:25
you're not gonna get the single daily chart
18:27
but i needed the signal you prior averse
18:32
so these are what they are side
18:35
but i programmed with those three rules that we made right
18:40
lower or at its lowest point
18:44
the clothes is not but its lowest point in expertise
18:47
and our sizable forty
18:48
the blue dots indicate upfront okay you're always going to get
18:52
a signal or to several at the end and that's gonna be the big reversal ok yet
18:57
look at this in the context of underlying price pattern
19:00
but you can see is pretty darn good catching
19:03
you know gets enough trends and
19:06
this is a weekly chart that was dogs are both weekly charts
19:10
okay in again look at the first ones done himself signals are always going to
19:13
get some signals they're gonna fail
19:16
and in that sense it's actually kind useful
19:18
as well as uh... reversal signal because once you get several of signals and you
19:22
go through and you can think of it as a period in time
19:27
since those signals failed that itself is a signal
19:30
right the failure signal
19:32
they'll be other way
19:34
uh... this is just the daily charge tuning out
19:36
euro dollar for the last time it mostly two dozen nine ten
19:40
eleven uh... up into about march
19:44
and you can see that the very signals
19:46
okay just looking for our side
19:48
to exceed previous highs and priced remain below
19:58
step volatility a_t_r_
20:01
is extremely useful
20:02
too hot for understanding the conditions that you're in
20:05
uh... i did not throw it in the senate presentation i'm not sure why the bolger
20:09
bandwidth is also very useful
20:12
and that's just the
20:13
with of the bombs events right
20:15
uh... we all know that with balter bands indicate fault ileum they're very vary
20:21
indicates that you may be
20:22
ending a trend and going to arrange period
20:25
when they're very very tight
20:27
indicates that you might
20:28
the prime for a breakout
20:30
right now the dollar again
20:32
uh... on pretty much every time frame the bond remains extremely tight so we
20:36
can get some wild moves in the end over the next few weeks
20:40
i'll talk about large range bars
20:43
uh... which were wonderful for point of reference
20:48
okay so if you are you view it as a percentage why argues a percentage
20:52
because the move of the euro from
20:55
you know eighty to ninety is a lot different than moved from one fifty to
20:58
one sixty payable thousand dept but the percentage is much different
21:02
uh... you were no the percentage moves
21:06
a_t_r_ it's really hard be having a panic low for a look at charts the
21:10
dollar swiss recently
21:12
we would see the a_t_r_ cream of the highest it's ever been
21:18
uh... this is a euro dollar daily chart
21:21
and for the most part of this is a twenty a_t_r_ again i was sheep you know
21:25
the printers the same
21:29
thirteen for weekly
21:32
you can see what he too has been extremely high
21:35
it's usually coincided with some sort of a reversal
21:37
okay maybe not right away
21:42
within a week or two
21:44
uh... and by the way this is a pretty current chart
21:48
you can see how low a_t_r_s recently and
21:51
teresa break out last week
21:56
it's justin that's gonna last for a little bit as we go to a higher
21:58
willfully environment
22:01
pound dollar a_t_r_
22:03
you can see how high it was at the two thousand and eight low two thousand nine
22:09
began the implications of that
22:10
we're probably gonna go to a long period of range and sure enough we have
22:15
a_t_r_ now is at its lowest level since right before broke down
22:20
sold the implications for that
22:22
or that may be expecting some larger moves
22:26
very slow very choppy up from that we've had
22:30
and you know for the last presentation if you were there uh... we looked at
22:33
may that may be a triangles underway
22:35
in the town dollar if it is the price chart move down
22:40
you know into close to one forty
22:42
before we find alone and rally
22:46
okay this is the australian dollar
22:48
uh... as a barometer of risk really just like the s_ and p_ is
22:52
the aussie dollar uh... you can really get nice signals in feeling for
22:57
the sense of complacency
22:59
that is you know in here in the market win
23:02
a_t_r_s extremely well
23:04
is a daily chart twenty a_t_r_
23:07
windy twenty dat archaeology falls below point nine
23:11
uh... you tend to have been extremely complacent byron you're about to
23:16
that's what this chart shows
23:19
when a_t_r_s below point nine a twenty-day average
23:22
so units take from this the most important thing
23:25
it's just understand that very low-level beatty armadillos have been in years
23:29
watch our for huge move
23:32
okay large range bars
23:33
reseller cartridge bars
23:36
because a healthy scan the market
23:39
uh... potential opportunities okay when you have the largest
23:43
daily range of had forty days
23:45
the largest daily range of had thirteen weeks
23:48
that usually indicates obviously that's something big happen intraday
23:52
printer period or whatever you're looking at
23:55
it may be you require further investigation
23:57
right we know that impulses intelli waiver shark moves
24:01
okay and tend to be the first of several short notes in sequence
24:05
so if you have a sharp impulse from a lower highpoint
24:08
that suggest that maybe you should look at the edge of a pattern see if there
24:11
was a five-way mover what not
24:13
then look for that entry on the rebound
24:16
uh... they can also obviously indicate exhaustion at the end of the trend
24:20
it's a lot like gaps if u or familiar with the stock market
24:25
obviously don't really get gaps in
24:27
in the affects market except on sunday night
24:30
might get one later today considering everything that happened last week
24:34
looking for looking for exhausted actors exhausting gaps of breakaway gaps
24:38
sustain thing here with
24:40
with uh... a large range bars
24:42
table are trained bar can indicate a breakout indicate exhaustion in indicate
24:47
okay it's all about the context in which your viewing the pattern
24:52
uh... their greatest reference points i wrote that article several
24:56
years ago i think you can
25:01
just to who will just a little more believable point
25:05
it's about you using uh...
25:07
large range bars and affects as a proxy for volume because they're highly
25:13
in a better when used a large timeframes and that's primarily because the skew
25:17
that talked about earlier
25:18
obviously you're going to have
25:20
like clockwork larger and parts of the european opened for the euro dollar
25:27
you need to look at daily chart larson twenty days for example
25:32
this is an aussie weekly chart you can see
25:37
what these look like some of these would be exhaustion the first one
25:40
of people the first would be it from a top and then you get exhaustion
25:44
uh... the second sequence
25:46
during two thousand eight
25:48
you had breakout and then
25:50
consolidated mini had exhaustion
25:52
for several weeks and then uh... last year in a
25:56
during this presentation earth during the adsorption expo last night
26:01
very sharp move exhaustion
26:03
this is the elephant stampede trade right
26:06
very sharp movements completely reversed
26:08
and then look what we had assist this year
26:11
we had a move from a high
26:12
and it was the largest
26:13
weekly range we've had thirteen weeks
26:16
so you use that as a point of reference as your first large brains you've had
26:19
thirteen weeks long time
26:21
you can trade a reversal from that
26:22
okay it's a signal to maybe you know starts with a bang
26:28
dollar swiss weekly chart
26:32
free much but it's that feminists are i guess right after the low
26:35
and you can see how that
26:38
uh... pinpointed below okay
26:41
that suggested that read
26:43
done something big in found a big pivotal point and we did
26:50
the point you can look at these charts nancy for example on the way down you
26:54
have a big large arranged
26:55
therefore you side you're gonna go short
26:58
and use the top of a large rains have stopped
27:02
on the other side at-large range from the up side
27:05
ilic you're gonna buy
27:06
in the range with a stop on the glove
27:10
okay he reversals kind of a take on
27:15
from volatility and high lows so
27:19
the classic definition is just beginning to higher love followed by a close
27:24
that's above herb below the prior close
27:28
now there'd be that happens all the time so it's not that useful
27:31
if you add a couple conditions to it
27:34
such as the reigns of the bar must be
27:36
the greatest that it's been
27:40
or below for more than eighty or whenever period
27:42
so the average a_t_r_ for euro dollars what one point two percent
27:46
finger mood has to be at least one point two percent
27:48
and has the highest time twenty days
27:53
intermittent bars and this is what they look like this is on the aussie dollar
27:58
and you can see that they do tend to give
28:00
decent reversal signals you will get false signals like any signal
28:04
uh... but they should be paid attention to
28:07
and all these things you know if you watch the videos they always talk about
28:09
we had a key reversal here in the last week of this week for this day
28:14
uh... on twitter boys talk you know we had a three hundred anneke reversal
28:17
uh... sixty minute ke reversal
28:23
uh... three questions
28:27
well thanks for attending
Today, the euro showed a weakening trend after it dropped by 0.7% against the US dollar. The news that the Greek’s finance minister had resigned a few days after taking over the job did not have any positive impact on the currency. The euro didn't fare so well today either, weakening 0.7% to US$1.2483. Accusing Merkel of misleading Europe, billionaire George Soros told Bloomberg that the EU officials have only three days to solve their differences. Credible sources also told Reuters that the worsening situations in Europe are evidently taking its toll. They added that the Credit Suisse is expected to lay-off some of its senior officials in its European investment banking department by a third. This is mainly due to the stiffer regulations and weakening market. Another source said that the European investment banking business is expected to lay-off 60 directors and managing directors.
